Assembly Data Analysis Report
A complete, data-driven picture of an assembly constituency: results across four elections, party vote shares, panchayat grades, swings between elections, booth-level strength and a clear priority plan for every panchayat.
2022 Assembly vs 2024 Lok Sabha
Vote share by party. Tap a bar for the exact figure.
The Story in Six Findings
BJP has not won this seat in any of the four elections. It came closest in 2017, losing by 2,106 votes.
Vote deficit in 2017. By 2022 it had grown to 23,803 and by 2024 to 33,598.
From 2017 to 2024, while the winner's share rose from 37.6% to 47.1%.
2017, 2022 and 2024. The rural base has shrunk by 30 panchayats in seven years.
A moving opposition
The main rival was SP in 2017, BSP in 2019, SP in 2022 and ASP in 2024. ASP took 47.1% in 2024 while SP fell to 18.1% and BSP to 1.6%.
The urban gap
In the Nagar Palika BJP polled 21.5% against ASP's 41.8% in 2024. That deficit of 10,826 votes is about 32% of the seat-wide gap.
Where to focus
25 panchayats led in 2022 were lost in 2024 and are the first priority. 13 more are within reach.
Results and Vote Share Trends
2017 and 2022 are Assembly elections. 2019 and 2024 are Lok Sabha elections for the parent constituency.
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| Election | Votes polled | BJP share | Winner | Winner share | BJP − winner | Others above 1% | Booths BJP led | Panchayats BJP led |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2017 Assembly | 2,15,365 | 36.6% | SP | 37.6% | −2,106 | BSP 20.9%, RLD 1.7% | 152 / 339 | 74 / 127 |
| 2019 Lok Sabha | 2,14,457 | 35.2% | BSP | 60.4% | −53,936 | INC 2.2% | 116 / 379 | 47 / 128 |
| 2022 Assembly | 2,31,720 | 33.9% | SP | 44.2% | −23,803 | BSP 19.2% | 142 / 392 | 68 / 128 |
| 2024 Lok Sabha | 2,17,558 | 31.7% | ASP | 47.1% | −33,598 | SP 18.1%, BSP 1.6% | 112 / 364 | 44 / 128 |
No SP candidate in 2019 (SP–BSP alliance). ASP first contested in 2024. Rural panchayats exclude the Nagar Palika.
BJP share vs the winner's share
Percent of votes polled in each election
Party vote share, election by election
Stacked to 100% of votes polled
BJP minus the winner, in votes
The deficit BJP had to close in each election
How much ground BJP led
Share of booths and rural panchayats where BJP was ahead
What Changed Between Assembly and Lok Sabha
BJP's share moved from 33.9% to 31.7%. The winner changed from SP (44.2%) to ASP (47.1%). These are different kinds of election with different candidates.
−14,162 votes
BJP lost the lead in 25 and gained it in 1.
−24 in two years
Out of 392 booths in 2022 and 364 in 2024.
Votes by party
2022 (light) and 2024 (dark)
Change in votes, 2022 → 2024
Where the votes went
Who led the rural panchayats
Number of the 128 rural panchayats led by each party
2022: SP led 48 panchayats and 203 booths. 2024: ASP led 80 panchayats and 205 booths, SP led 4.
Distribution of BJP share
Number of panchayats in each 10-point band of BJP share
Grading Every Panchayat A to D
Each rural panchayat gets an overall grade from all four elections, and a separate grade for each election. Grades compare BJP with the strongest rival in that panchayat.
Overall grade across four elections
Number of rural panchayats (128)
Grade mix over time
Share of panchayats in each single-election grade
Overall grade summary
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| Grade | Rule | Panchayats | Votes 2022 | BJP share 2022 | Votes 2024 | BJP share 2024 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| A | Led every election, average share 50%+ | 37 | 47,273 | 62.9% | 44,254 | 60.2% |
| B | Led all but one election | 11 | 14,213 | 47.5% | 13,536 | 43.6% |
| C | Led at least once | 32 | 39,844 | 39.9% | 38,243 | 36.6% |
| D | Never led | 48 | 70,305 | 18.0% | 68,109 | 16.0% |
How grades moved, 2022 → 2024
Rows are the 2022 grade, columns the 2024 grade. Darker cells hold more panchayats.
Improved grade: 4 panchayats. Fell a grade or more: 39. Only 21 of 27 grade A panchayats stayed A.
Booth grades, 2022
392 booths graded on the same A to D rule
Average BJP share by overall grade
2022 and 2024, percent
2017 → 2022 grade movement
Between the two Assembly polls
- Lost the lead (10)Aurangpur Basanta, Hasanpur, Shahjahanpur Jasrath, Bakarpur, Rajpur Nawada, Gadhmalpur, Gajipur, Fatehullapur Durg, Sadatpur, Heempur Pachchatpura
- Gained the lead (4)Harchandpur, Nagla Hardas, Pooranpur Narottam, Ranikota
- Improved grade8 panchayats
- Fell a grade or more29 panchayats
Where the Votes Moved
Panchayat-level swings between elections show which areas are slipping and which are holding.
BJP lead: 2022 vs 2024
Each dot is a rural panchayat. BJP lead over the top rival, in points. Below the dashed line BJP did worse in 2024.
Biggest swings in BJP share, 2022 → 2024
Six largest falls and six largest rises, in percentage points
2017 → 2022: biggest vote movers
BJP's biggest gains
Votes, 2017 → 2022
BJP's biggest losses
Votes, 2017 → 2022
SP's biggest gains
Votes, 2017 → 2022
Across the two Assembly polls total votes rose by 16,355. BJP lost 300 votes while SP gained 21,397. BJP gained votes in 69 of 127 rural panchayats.
Close Contests in 2024
Panchayats where the gap to the top rival was within 10 points in 2024. These are the places where a small swing changes the result.
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Panchayats BJP led in 2022 but lost in 2024 (25)
Search Every Panchayat
BJP share in each election, the trend, the grade and the 2024 position against the top rival. Sort any column, filter by grade or priority group, and download the result as a CSV.
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Five Groups, One Plan Each
Every rural panchayat is placed in one group using both the 2022 and 2024 results. Pick a group to see its rule, the plan and the panchayats in it.
Share of the 128 rural panchayats in each group
BJP share by group
2022 and 2024, percent
Votes polled by group, 2024
Where the votes are. Long-term build holds the most.
The Nagar Palika Needs Its Own Plan
The biggest single gap in the seat sits in the urban area, so it needs a ward-level plan separate from the rural groups.
BJP vs the top rival in the Nagar Palika
Vote share, percent
Of 392 booths in 2022.
About one in four votes in the seat.
About 32% of the seat-wide gap of 33,598 votes.
How to Read This Report
Grading rules
- AOverall: BJP led every election and averaged 50% or more. Single election: BJP at 55% or more.
- BOverall: BJP led all but one election (or all four with an average under 50%). Single election: BJP ahead, under 55%.
- COverall: BJP led at least once. Single election: BJP behind by less than 10 points.
- DOverall: BJP never led. Single election: BJP behind by 10 points or more.
Priority group rules
- Hold: BJP led in 2022 and 2024 with 55%+ both times.
- Defend: BJP led in both years, under 55% at least once.
- Win back: BJP led in 2022 but lost the lead in 2024.
- Within reach: behind, but within 10 points in 2022 or 2024, or led only in 2024.
- Long-term build: top rival ahead by 10+ points in both years.
Source: Section 3 (Result Stats) of the Strategic Research Report. 2017 and 2022 are Assembly; 2019 and 2024 are Lok Sabha. "BJP lead" is BJP's share minus the strongest rival's share in the same panchayat. Five 2017 booths had no panchayat in the report and count only in seat totals. Charts are interactive: tap or hover for exact values.
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